A recent study from IBES and the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology (EEOB) at Brown was named a finalist for the 2024 PNAS Cozzarelli Prize this month. It was one of just 12 papers, of more than 3,200 papers published across all fields of science by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), recognized for its scientific excellence and originality.
The study, “A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change,” challenges a fundamental assumption used to predict how species will respond to climate shifts. Many climate models assume that the way a species currently varies across its geographic range can be used to project how its populations will respond to future climate change. However, by analyzing climate records and tree-ring growth data from 23 populations of ponderosa pine trees across the western U.S., the team found that these traditional forecasting methods not only miscalculate the magnitude of expected change but often predict the wrong direction of change — suggesting increased growth where declines actually occur.